Ep. 76 Waiver Wire Week 3

We recap the last few games of Week 2 and give you a long list of Waiver Wire adds for Week 3. Need someone to drop to pick up these guys? We cover that as well with a list of guys that should not be rostered anymore!

2019 Fantasy Football Busts

The Fantasy Football season has arrived! With this week/ Weekend being a “Draft Day” Holiday for many we wanted to give you guys to avoid this season!

2019 Running Back Busts

Although we cannot agree on these two together we both make an intriguing case to why these guys can bust this year!

Derrick Henry- Tennessee Titans

First bad part of Henry, he is going in round 4 and there is too much risk of re-Injury. Henry has injured his right leg on two separate occasions. Once in college and once in his rookie year. As of right now he has injured one of his legs and has been in a walking boot since Friday.

Second, Dion Lewis did not go anywhere. Henry is not used in the passing game. Dion got 67 targets last year compared to Henrys 18.

On top of all of that he plays on a terrible offense and Jeremy McNickles is getting hyped as a change of pace back. This may be nothing or just to help fuel Henry’s fire but it is definitely worth noting.

Henry is going to have to score touchdowns again this year  to stay relevant. He is still on the high from the end of the season which was great but remember it was only 5 games and 60% of his Fantasy points came in those 5 games!

Beware drafting Henry this season.T

Aaron Jones- Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones is a young back who flashed his potential last season after serving a two-game suspension for a substance abuse violation. Jones also missed the last 2 weeks of the season with an injury going on IR.

Jones has never got the opportunity to be the lone back in this offense and I don’t believe her will get that chance again this year.

With Jamal Williams still in the fold and his recent knee injury at the end of the season his value is just too low to be being taken in the middle of the 3rd round.

Greggory Cline and Trevor Calvert Contributed to this Article.

2019 WR Bust

With the depth at wide receivers this year there are a couple guys we don’t believe will live up to the draft expectations.

Chris Godwin- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Early in the offseason Godwin looked to be a Sleeper for the season and was the talk of many in the industry. All of this hype drove up the ADP on Godwin to the middle of the 4th round!

I think Godwin can make a leap from last year but the 4th round is way too early now. Guys like Golladay, Lockett, Kupp, Ridley, and Byod are all on the board and should have a  better season than he.

Godwin is behind one of the best receivers in the league in Mike Evens who has averaged over 140 targets per year. This is even including last season when Godwin, Humphries, Jackson, Brate, and Howard were all getting targeted!

There is a lot to like this year in Chris Godwin but unless he slides back down into the 7th round or later I would not recommend taking him this year. 

Allen Robinson- Chicago Bears

Many are still believing in the potential stardom that Allen Robinson could have had coming off a huge 2015 season but a devastating ACL tear in the opener for the 2017 season ended that hype.

Allen Robinson was WR41 last season but is being taken as WR31 this season. With Mitch Trubisky still at the helm for the bears and Anthony Miller ready to take on a larger role in his second season it is hard to see Robinson’s prospects improving from his production last season.

If Robinson were going later in drafts say somewhere around WR40 which would move his ADP to the 9th round there would be substantially more value to be found with him, but as is Allen Robinson is someone to avoid while there are more high upside options.

Greggory Cline and Trevor Calvert Contributed to this Article.

2019 QB Bust

Two Quarterbacks going in the top 12 both have the potential to disappoint this season.

Andrew Luck- Indianapolis Colts

Luck had a really bad start to the season last year coming off yet another injury. He only averaged 16 points through the first 3 games and when you take a guy that early you have to rely on him.

Luck has been falling in ADP since the scare of the injury popped back up but he is still the QB 8 in the 8th round. If you are going to take a QB in single digit rounds why take a risk? What happens when Luck is not ready for week one? You have to draft 2 quarterbacks which will take up more coveted spots on your bench for wide receivers and running backs! Goff, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Prescott, and Stafford are all guys I am happy with and not much risk around any of them. They are all going in later rounds.

If you are going to spend up on a QB Luck is not one I would be willing to take the chance with at least as of today.

Kyler Murray- Arizona Cardinals

Murray was the number 1 overall pick in this draft and was highly touted coming out of college. He moves to an NFL team led by rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury has brought the college air raid offensive system with him not unlike the system in which Murray came from. From there the good stops.

The offensive line in Arizona does not look to have improved the offensive line in the offseason and that could prove to be his biggest downfall. Murray has not impressed thus far in the preseason and will likely struggle to find consistency this season. Murray is going as QB12 in drafts currently with several more established veterans or players with more upside being drafted behind him. Murray’s ADP has simply risen to the point that he no longer has upside value.

Murray is one to avoid in all leagues except dynasty and 2 QB/ Superflex leagues.

Greggory Cline and Trevor Calvert Contributed to this Article.

2019 TE Bust

If you decide to punt on the Tight end position here are couple of guys going as TE 1 that we recommend you avoid.

David Njoku- Cleveland Browns

Njoku finished with the second most targets on the team last year and still could not be Fantasy relevant. With the addition of Odell Beham jr. his targets will go down and that should be enough to want to keep you away. Use the 8th round for depth building in the draft before wide receivers and running backs all disappear. 

Last season Njoku had the biggest opportunity he will probably ever see and he did not show up for the occasion. With less opportunity this year you have to expect him to finish lower than last.

TJ Hockenson- Detroit Lions

Hockenson was the highest drafted TE this season being taken #8 overall. That is a lot of hype to like up to especially in being that the last TE the Lions drafted with a top 10 pick did not work out so well. The pressure will be on for Hockenson to be good if not spectacular right away. Rookie TE’s usually struggle as the position is actually quite tough to master. Hockenson will find it tough to make an impact. The best finishes from a rookie TE since 2010 have been by Gronk and Evan Engram who both finished as #5 in their respective seasons. Those are two pretty good names to be mentioned within the TE circle but those are the exceptions, not the rules.

Greggory Cline and Trevor Calvert Contributed to this Article.

TE Sleepers 2019

Tight Ends are slim pickings outside the top three this year. Here a a couple guys we like the value of and expect solid seasons from!

Delanie Walker- Tennessee Titans

As the TE 13 and going in the twelfth round Delanie Walker is a guy I am targeting if I don’t get one of the big three guys (Kelce, Kittle, Ertz).

Walker is falling based on two things. First his age, Walker just turned 35 and is on the tail end of his career and we have seen good players fall in production in the final years of the NFL. Second, the injury in week one has some people worried and frankly forgetful of what he has done throughout his career.

In 2017 he received 111 targets and 4 touchdowns and in 2016 very similar as he got 102 targets and 7 touchdowns. The Titans added Adam Humphries this offseason and have a promising young receiver in Corey Davis but I still believe he will get his share of targets and produce in this offense. Let’s be honest, If you waited this long you can’t be upset with the production you get from any tight end so be happy a guy like Walker is falling!

If you can grab him late you should be able to count on him getting consistent numbers and having your running back and wide receivers reap the benefit of you focusing on them early.

Kyle Rudolph- Minnesota Vikings

Kyle Rudolph was unspectacular last season and still managed to finish as the #9 TE in fantasy last season. Coming off a couple of down seasons the Vikings saw enough in him to resign him even after drafting a young TE in Irv Smith.

Rudolph is being taken as the TE 18 in fantasy drafts currently but has not finished outside the top 10 at the TE position since 2015 where he still finished inside the top 15. The Vikings look to have an improved line and Cousins and Rudolph have now had a full season to build a rapport.

The bottom line is the TE position is not a particularly deep one in Fantasy football so getting a guy with a solid floor late in drafts(going 13.10 in fantasy drafts) is a steal.

Jarod Cook- New Orleans Saints

Jarod Cook averaged 10 points per game on a team lead by Derick Carr. He now has the chance to play with Drew Brees and receive much better quality targets.

His target share is likely to go down because there are so many weapons here but the track record Brees has with tight ends over the years makes me confident he can hold steady at his fantasy production from last year. When Drew Brees had a good TE in Jimmy Graham he targeted him on average 137 times per season for 4 seasons!

You can’t expect those numbers but as the 7th TE off the board he is a good value.

Greggory Cline and Trevor Calvert Contributed to this Article.

Your 2019 Sleepers

AND NOW YOUR 2019 FANTSY SLEEPERS!! We go over all of the players you should try to target in the later rounds of the draft. 

WR Sleepers 2019

Wide Receivers are very deep this year so here are a few guys we like if you decide to wait on the position.

James Washington- Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Brown has been a monster to say the least in his tenure with the Steelers and with a mind boggling 168 targets and 15 touchdowns now up for grabs from last season he has left a lot of work for some of the young and new guys this year.

James Washington’s sophomore season could be his breakout year, Since last season Washington has shed 15 pounds and worked on his route running. Two preseason games in and Washington passes the eye test and is getting some work with a touchdown and 8 catches for 162 yards! Sure, the Steelers did sign Donte Moncrief but, even if you believe he will take the wide receiver 2 spot over Washington(You are probably wrong), 78.4% of the time in 2018 the Steelers had 3 wide receivers on the field. The preseason has not looked nearly as good for Moncrief either as his only catch resulted in a fumble.

With a 10th round pick you can’t go wrong here!

Donte Moncrief- Pittsburgh Steelers

Donte Moncrief moves from one of the worst possible situations for a receiver to one of the best possible situations. When Moncrief made the move to Pittsburgh this season he left behind an incompetent offense with a backup QB mascarading as a starter  for an all time great QB in a high powered offense with many targets up for grabs.

Moncrief has battled injuries throughout his career but has shown promise when on the field. He made the most of his situation last season and was able to turn in numbers of 48 receptions and 668 receiving yards. Of the players vying for the backup WR role Moncreif and James washington have the best chance at the position. What gives Moncrief the edge is his experience and apparent budding chemistry with QB Ben Roethlisberger. Many look at the preseason stats but they do not tell the whole story. Moncrief is getting snaps with the first team currently which is limiting the time he has been on the field. Also missing from the equation has been Roethlisberger who will be the starting QB and who has talked about the chemistry he is developing with Moncrief.

Moncrief is currently being drafted late in the 10th round and provides a lot of upside for the receiver position. His current ADP makes him a value as he is in a good offense and is currently set to be the #2 receiver(Maybe).

Michael Gallup- Dallas Cowboys

Gallup is going into his second season teed up for a great season especially if Zeke decides to sit out any number of games this year.

With Cooper on the field last season Gallup actually saw 2 more targets per game.. Again, A ROOKIE was getting targeted more with Cooper than without. You can only expect these targets to increase and his time on the field to increase in his second season. There are a lot of targets being taken between Cooper, Cobb and the returning Witten but even still he should be the number 2 option on the team.

I expect him to be a solid WR 3 with WR 2 upside this year. 

Devin Funchess- Indianapolis Colts

Devin Funchess is coming from a team led by Cam Newton who is good at what he does but is not nearly the passer that Andrew Luck is. This alone should help Funchess.

Not to mention he will be in a dynamic offense with more weapons than most teams can cover. Lining up across from TY should help Funchess this season. Funchess has had drop issues in recent years but the Colts were able to make it work with drop prone Eric Ebron and Funchess should be no different. Funchess is coming off a disappointing season but should be in line for a bounce back season.

Funchess will likely be a solid red zone target for luck as a big bodied receiver. With Funchess being taken in the 13th round he has solid upside as a depth receiver who could be a solid spot start in bye weeks.

John Brown- Buffalo Bills

John Brown has battled injuries for most of his career that have hindered him from living up to his potential. Last season he was finally healthy and was able to showcase some of that potential. Brown is a good deep threat and has a quarterback with maybe the strongest arm in the league. On paper this is a match made in heaven. On the field, though, Allen and Brown will need to be able to develop that deep ball chemistry in order for Brown to live up to his potential.

Browns value took a huge dip at the end of last season due to Lamar Jackson taking over as the starting QB in Baltimore. In the 7 weeks that Jackson was the starter Brown never scored more than 10 points. In the 9 weeks before that Brown had 5 such games.

Brown will compete with Zay Jones and Cole Beasley for targets but his value as a high upside guy in the 13th makes him worth looking at. 

Cole Beasley- Buffalo Bills

Yes, he is going undrafted and Yes, he is on the Bills. I like this Bills offense this year. Josh Allen is one more year polished and the front office put some players around him to get the passing game going this year.

Josh Allen said “Check-downs aren’t usually a cop-out. It’s usually the smartest play. When everybody drops back, get it to a running back, get it to a tight end, get it to our slot, and let them make a play.” If you know anything about Beasley he is the check-down receiver of the past 5 years. Allen’s big arm should open the middle of the field up for Beasley and you have to believe he will make the plays with every opportunity.

On top of all of this Beasley played one quarter and was targeted 5 times and caught all 5 in the week 2 preseason game. I don’t want to put too much of an emphasis on the preseason but it is impressive to get 45% of the balls the QB throws.

Expect Beasley to finish the year as a solid WR 3 with the ability to be WR2.

Greggory Cline and Trevor Calvert Contributed to this Article.

QB Sleepers 2019

Just in time for your drafts here are some Quarterbacks you can take later in the draft and be more than happy with their fantasy production!

Jameis Winston- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jameis is in the last year of his contract and needs to show this season that he can be a franchise QB or risk potentially losing a starting role and a significant amount on his next contract. Outside of the contract though the most important thing that is in his favor this season is the change in coaching staff. Bruce Arians was hired this offseason after having stints with both Arizona and Indianapolis in recent years. Arians is known as a bit of a QB whisperer and should be able to get Jameis to that next level.

Jameis has also slimmed down this offseason and has looked more mobile in camp. Now on to his fantasy prospects, In the 11 games in which he did play last season he averaged 19 fantasy points per game, if you remove the two games in which he played less than 50% of the snaps that number climbs even higher to 20.5. If you extrapolate that out to a full 16 games that would make Jameis the number 5 QB in 2018. Now I am not saying that Jameis would have finished there had he played all season but we can see that the potential is there.

Jameis is currently going as QB13 based on ADP and with his weapons and new coaching staff this is tremendous value as he could easily finish as a top 10 QB this season. 

Dak Prescott- Dallas Cowboys

First off, there is a lot of murmurs about Dak being a bad QB. He is coming off a year in which he had a career high in passing yards and knocked a Russell Wilson lead Seahawks team out of the first round of the playoffs and then went on to lose to the eventual NFC Champs in the Rams. Quit giving Dak so much hate!

Now, for his Fantasy implications this season he is such a great value at the end of the 12th round or QB 18, behind Tom Brady, why not wait on him?! Remember it was after week 7 that the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper. Cooper helped Prescott out a ton and didn’t get an offseason to work on chemistry together, just think how much better they will be! Before that Cole Beasly(another player I love, but as your number 1?)and rookie Michael Gallup were Prescott’s top receivers. Dak’s Completion percentage, Open throw Percentage, and Passer rating all went up with Amari Cooper.

Oh, and let’s not forget the part you are here for, he averaged 3 more fantasy points per game with Cooper(From 17 up to 20). That would have moved Dak to the QB8 position had Cooper been there all season. He has never finished the season lower than the QB10 since being in the league and throwing 22 or 23 touchdowns each year and rushing 6 each year! Dak is a steal in the 12th and No bad argument will change my mind!

Matthew Stafford- Detroit Lions

One of the toughest if not THE toughest QB in the NFL. Stafford has accrued 8 straight 16 game seasons. Last season both his attempts and completions were at the lowest they have been since his Sophomore season. With a new defensive minded coach, few weapons, and an atrocious offensive line it was a perfect culmination for him to have a down year. Golden Tate one of his top targets was traded midway through the season and the young Kenny Golladay became the number 1 target in this offense. While the offensive line has not improved substantially, It is easy to see that his targets have. Kenny Golladay will get a full season to be the #1 receiver, Marvin Jones is a solid 2 at the position, Kerryon Johnson should help take some pressure off of him, and rookie TE TJ Hockenson has looked the part of a first round pick thus far in camp. These things combined with another year of continuity in his new system should help tremendously.

What is very appealing here fantasy wise is the value. Stafford is going in the 14th round as QB23. Stafford will come virtually free and is in line to have a substantially better season than his previous. Before Tate was traded Stafford averaged 18.1 PPG while after the trade he averaged a lowly 10.7. This discrepancy was also due to a tough schedule as the Lions played Minnesota twice, Bears twice, and the Rams and Bills once each. Of the last 9 weeks 6 were played against elite defenses.

All of this said Matthew Stafford should be a solid fantasy producer this season and finish much higher than his ADP would dictate.

Sam Darnold- New York Jets

New Coach, New Offense, New Playmakers, and one year behind him. Darnold is a guy going virtually undrafted in leagues. I get it, you don’t want a guy that has not proven himself especially with a QB draft class that seems to be as deep as ever.

Look at what Darnold did last year with a banged up Robby Anderson, Chris Herndon, and banged up Quincy Enunwa. Darnold averaged almost 16 points per game in 12 games, he was out for a foot injury for the other 4. 16 points does not get people excited but you add an upgrade(I think) at your coaching position, and upgrade at RB with LeVeon Bell, and an upgrade at WR in Jamison Crowder I like what he can potentially do with this team. And so far in the preseason he has looked great!

In a 2 QB league there in no question Darnold should be drafted and if you wait extra long on the QB I think he will be a safe bet for you this season!T

Greggory Cline and Trevor Calvert Contributed to this Article.